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Greg Sinclair
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Greg Sinclair

8/9/2007 12:26:58 PM

Are we alone here in the unimaginably vast cosmos?

Unimaginable as it may be, there is a remarkable and reasonable way to take a crack at imagining an answer to this question. In fact, there's even a well-established scientific discipline to study the origin, evolution, and distribution of life in the universe--it's called exobiology.

But closer to home, as recently as November 2006, we may have found a very reasonable place to go looking for life on our neighbor world--Mars, right down the cosmic alley, if you will. We'll get to that a little further down. First ...


How to calculate the likelihood of extraterrestrial life
A well-known astronomer named Frank Drake proposed a series of approximations back in 1961 to give us a reasonable estimate of the chances of having an extraterrestrial civilization "out there." It's simple. Just use the calculation N = R*fp nefl fi fcL. Easy, right?

Here's what it means:

Called the Drake equation, this calculation starts with total number of stars in a given part of space, say, our galaxy. At any time in the cosmos, some stars are forming. Others are using up their fuel and dying. Still others create more fusion energy than their gravity can contain; they’re exploding. So, astronomers often estimate the total number of stars using a term associated with a rate of star formation. We call it “R*” (R-star). For the Milky Way, it's around 400 billion; hence the expression, "billions and billions" of stars. (This phrase was used by the extraordinary talk show host Johnny Carson, when he parodied the extraordinary astronomer Carl Sagan.)

Then we can consider the percentage or fraction of stars that would also have planets orbiting them. That's fp.

Of those fp planets, what portion of them have conditions that could sustain life, akin to the conditions on our own planet? That's ne, ("n sub-e" for "earthlike").

Now, the fraction of planets on which self-aware, or "intelligent" life has evolved: fi.

Life on Saturn's moon?How about the fraction of self-aware-ians (sic) that feel like communicating with other civilizations?: fc.

Then, an important and perhaps sobering one, the lifetime of such a civilization: L

So how many planets could have intelligent life? We write that total number with a capital N.

Again, the calculation N = R*fp nefl fi fcL gives us the likelihood of intelligent life "out there."

Exobiologists have good estimates for just one of these terms: R* (representing the total number of stars, if you've forgotten). Because all the rest of the terms are still pretty unknown, you can go wild with this equation.

Let's say there are and were about 400 billion stars in the Milky Way Galaxy when ours came along. Then, let's say only a tenth of them have planets (which is a low estimate). Of those, let's say only a millionth of them are Earth-like. Looking around, life may not be that unlikely, so let's say of these Earth-like planets, the chances of some kind of life happening are about one in ten. Then only a 10,000th of them have intelligent life. Of those, perhaps a 100th stumble on to radio-wave telescopes. Then let's say, once a civilization comes into being, it doesn't blow itself up, catastrophically disrupt its planet's climate, or lose interest in radio astronomy, so it lasts about 10,000 years. So, let's see:

N = (400 billion)(1/10)(1/1,000,000)(1/10)(1/10,000)(1/100)(10,000)
= 40 civilizations.

That's not that many, seeing as how there is so much space in space. On the other hand, what if these crazy-wild guesses are way off? What if life is very likely? Using clever techniques and telescopes, we have discovered hundreds of planets orbiting other stars, and the search for these planets is in its infancy. What if intelligent civilizations are common? It's easy to use different guesses for each (fudge) factor, recompute this, and estimate that civilizations number not in the dozens, but in the millions. It's quite an exercise.

So get this: If there is liquid water on Mars rig


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Larz Boah

8/9/2007 1:11:52 PM


quite fascinating....now I am...er..
spaced-out...ha ha....but seriously...
can u imagine another Earth ..or
better yet...a number of sister planets
like ours? WHOOAAA!


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8/9/2007 1:17:42 PM


I always think - wouldn't it be an absolutely trip if we were the ONLY intelligent beings in the whole cosmos?

That may sound crazy if you study things like the Drake Equation - but never say never. Know one knows for 100% certainty that there is intelligent life out there. We HOPE there is, but there is really NO concrete proof that there is.

Scientists do not accept photographs and videos as proof. Neither do they accept eyewitness testimony. Scientists want something tangible to study, otherwise they won't accept any idea of "aliens".

I keep an open mind on the subject - there could be other intelligent life out there - probability alone dictates that it is so. But there also could be nothing at all.


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8/9/2007 2:05:15 PM


AND

If there IS nothing at all out there - what does that say about us? What does that say to the evolutionists? That would mean human life is SO special that it would be incalculable how it beat the odds of probability of being the ONLY intelligent life in the vastness of the whole cosmos.

Thats a rush dood ;)


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The Man With No Band

8/9/2007 2:06:39 PM


I see one major flaw in this equation ... The whole thing is based on what we as humans call "intelligent life" .... and they are using "Earth like" as a focal point in determining whether or not there is other life out there ...
I think you need to look a lot farther "outside the box" .. of course that may mean we may find that we are not an "intelligent lifeform" after all..


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Eaglehead

8/9/2007 2:11:33 PM


Sam - ya hit the nail right on the head again :)

From what I see as I look around at the world as it is today, we dont rate as being so smart somehow....

C


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SILVERWOODSTUDIO

8/9/2007 6:03:46 PM


Interesting------------there is an asumption that the planet Earth is run by and for, human life!
There are many other lifeforms on earth with much higher populations than human mammals.------------- insects and bacteria are two, humans have not been here very long and may be not as smart at surviving as species like cockroaches!
Maybe there's a flaw in human thinking?


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Larry W Johnson_

8/10/2007 2:22:01 AM


Proof of life in Space... UFO here on Earth!!!


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Larz Boah

8/11/2007 6:06:39 AM


First UFO sighting_1975...is there life
elsewhere?...does it Rock like this?....
are U an Alien?...are We all Aliens?...
Of Course!


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